[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Mar 30 10:30:19 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 29 Mar. The visible 
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs 
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 30 Mar-1 Apr. On 29 Mar 
The solar wind speed was gradually decreasing from 520 km/s to 
420 km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt) ranged 
between 6 nT and 4 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was 
oscillating between +/-3 nT. On UT day 30 Mar, the solar wind 
speed is expected to return to its background levels as the coronal 
hole effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Mostly Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221221
      Cocos Island         3   11210210
      Darwin               5   12221211
      Townsville           6   12231211
      Learmonth            5   21221221
      Alice Springs        4   02221211
      Culgoora             4   12221111
      Gingin               5   11221221
      Canberra             5   12221221
      Launceston           8   12331222
      Hobart               7   02331221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   02342110
      Casey               10   23322223
      Mawson              24   43331455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1342 3212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar     5    Quiet
01 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 29 Mar with isolated Unsettled periods at higher 
latitudes. Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
the next three days, 30 Mar-1 Apr with possible isolated Unsettled 
periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 29 Mar. 
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 30 Mar.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Mar   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 29 March with mild depressions 
local day. Similar levels of ionospheric support may be observed 
30 Mar-1 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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