[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 31 10:30:22 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 30 Mar. The visible 
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs 
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 31 Mar-2 Apr. On UT day 
30 Mar, the solar wind speed declined from 420 km/s to nearly 
370 km/s in response to the waning effect of a negative polarity 
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 
3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-3 nT, mostly neutral. A slight enhancement in the 
solar wind speed may be observed over the next three UT days, 
31 Mar-2 Apr due some weak dispatched coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   21000001
      Townsville           1   11011001
      Learmonth            1   11000100
      Alice Springs        1   11001001
      Culgoora             1   10011000
      Gingin               2   21011100
      Canberra             1   11011000
      Launceston           2   11122000
      Hobart               2   11022000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   01010000
      Casey                5   33210101
      Mawson              12   44111133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2122 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 30 Mar. Unsettled to Active periods were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity may increase to 
Unsettled levels on UT days 31 Mar- 2Apr March if the solar wind 
becomes enhanced due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 30 Mar. 
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 31 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 30 Mar. Moderate enhancements 
were observed in Cocos Island region during local day and night. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support may be observed 31 Mar-02 
Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    70800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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