[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 28 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 27 March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 28-30 March. On 27 March
the solar wind speed remained at it nominal levels ~350 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT and its north-south
component (Bz) was oscillating between +/-5 nT with prolonged
southward periods up to -3 nT. A moderate increase in the solar
wind speed is possible today, 28 March due to high speed solar
wind stream from an equatorial located negative polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12221120
Cocos Island 3 11220120
Darwin 5 12221121
Townsville 6 12321121
Learmonth 5 12221130
Alice Springs 4 11221120
Culgoora 4 11221120
Gingin 5 11221131
Canberra 3 11221020
Launceston 6 12232120
Hobart 4 12221120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 01242010
Casey 10 23332131
Mawson 16 23223254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2200 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
29 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 27 March. For 28-30 March, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled
levels with possible isolated Active periods. The predicted increase
in the geomagnetic activity is due to high speed solar wind stream
from coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 27 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 28 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
the Australian region on UT day 27 March. Similar levels of ionospheric
support may be observed 28-30 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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