[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 27 10:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26 March. The visible 
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs 
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 27-29 March. On 26 March 
the solar wind speed remained at it nominal levels, varying in 
the range 320-370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT 
and 8 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was predominantly 
northward at approx 6nT for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed 
is expected to start increasing today, 27 March due to the anticipated 
onset of a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located 
negative polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22101002
      Cocos Island         2   21100001
      Darwin               2   22101001
      Townsville           3   22101012
      Learmonth            3   22011002
      Alice Springs        3   22001002
      Culgoora             3   22101002
      Gingin               2   22000001
      Canberra             4   23001002
      Launceston           5   23101003
      Hobart               4   23101002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   22001001
      Casey                6   33211002
      Mawson               7   34112100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1100 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    20    Quiet to Active
28 Mar    15    Quiet to Active
29 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 26 March and are expected to 
remain so until the arrival of the corotating interaction region 
and high speed solar wind streams associated with a negative 
polarity coronal hole today, 27 March. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels. Active levels 
should continue on UT day 28 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 26 March. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 27 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
29 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
Australian region on UT day 26 March. Moderate enhancements were 
observed in Cocos Island region during local night. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support are expected today, 27 March. Degraded 
HF conditions may be observed 28-29 March due to disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:    30100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list