[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 26 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 March. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days,
26-28 March. There has been no significant impact from the 20
March CME, possibly due to its slower that anticipated transit
time. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On 25 March the solar wind speed was at
it nominal levels, varying in the range 300-350 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 8 nT and its north-south component
(Bz) was fluctuating between +5 nT and -4 nT without significant
periods of negative Bz. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at nominal levels today, 26 March. Enhanced solar wind speeds
are expected on UT days, 27-28 March due to expected arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111202
Cocos Island 3 21111201
Darwin 3 21111201
Townsville 5 31111202
Learmonth 5 21111302
Alice Springs 3 21111201
Culgoora 4 21111202
Gingin 3 21100212
Canberra 2 21100201
Launceston 4 21211202
Hobart 2 11101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 33310212
Mawson 7 22111114
Davis 4 22211002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 7 Quiet
27 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
28 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Quiet to Unsettled levels were seen in Antarctica
on UT day 25 March. On UT day 26 March, the geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels. Condition may reach
Active levels on UT days 27-28 March in response to expected
arrival of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 25 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 26 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for Australian
region on UT day 25 March. Moderate enhancements were observed
in Cocos Island region during local night. Similar levels of
ionospheric support are expected for the next 2 UT days, 26-27
March. Degraded HF conditions may be observed 28 March due to
the aftermath of the expected active geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 266 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 7810 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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