[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 25 10:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 24 March, with
several B class flares all from active region 2736. The AR2736
will soon rotate towards the far-side of the solar disk and so
will no longer be a threat to earth. Solar activity is expected
to be at Low levels for the next three UT day (25-27 March) with
a small chance of C-class flares. The earth appears to be under
the initial impact of the 20 March CME. Examination of real-time
solar-wind measurements from DSCOVR satellite indicates that
a sudden perturbation - shock in solar wind starting at 24/2043
UT. Prior to the arrival of the shockwave, the solar wind speed
was at it nominal levels of 250 km/s. During the pre CME period,
the total IMF (Bt) was steady near 3 nT and its north-south component
(Bz) was fluctuating between +3 nT and -1 nT. After the arrival
of the shockwave at 24/2043 UT, the solar wind speed has increased
to 300 km/s. The IMF Bt peaked to 7 nT and IMF Bz fluctuated
between +5 nT and -4 nT. So far there has been no significant
periods of Southward IMF Bz associated with the CME. No other
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Today UT day 25 March, the solar wind speed is expected
to increase to moderate levels associate with the passage of the
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10000002
Cocos Island 1 10100002
Darwin 1 10000002
Townsville 2 10000003
Learmonth 1 02000002
Alice Springs 1 10000002
Culgoora 1 10000002
Gingin 1 01000002
Canberra 0 00000002
Launceston 2 10000003
Hobart 0 00000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000002
Casey 2 12200001
Mawson 0 00200000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 20 Active
26 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region and in Antarctica on 24 March. The earth currently under
the initial impact of the 20 March CME, the shock from the CME
arrived at earth starting at 24/2043 UT. It is therefore expected
that the geomagnetic activity may increase up to Active levels
and at times possibly to minor Storm levels during the next 24
hours (UT day 25 March). Mostly Unsettled, followed by mostly
Quiet conditions are expected on UT day 26 and 27 March, as the
CME effects moves past earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 24 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 25 March.
On UT day 26 March the HF propagation conditions are expected
to degrade due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity
up to Active levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 24 March. Similar to slightly improved
MUF conditions are expected on UT day 25 March, due the onset
of disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated with 20 March
CME. On 26 March, the HF propagation conditions are expected
to degrade as the aftermath of the expected active geomagnetic
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 13500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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