[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 24 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 77/16 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 23 March, with
several B class flares all from active region 2736. Currently
there is two numbered active regions on the visible disc, both
located close to the west limb of the visible solar disk. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate level for the today
24 March, with a remote chance that the AR2736 will produce isolated
M-class flares. The 20 March CME is expected to arrive at the
Earth over the next 24 hours. No other Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On 23 March the
solar wind speed was at it nominal levels, varying in the range
270-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT
and its north-south component (Bz) was fluctuating between +3
nT and -3 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. Today
UT day 24 March, the solar wind speed is expected to remain near
its background levels, however, upon arrival of the shock wave
associated with the 20 March CME the solar wind can increase
to moderate levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 10010000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 10010001
Townsville 1 11010000
Learmonth 1 21000000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Culgoora 0 00010000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 1 01020000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 22211100
Mawson 1 12010000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0010 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
25 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 23 March and
is current for 24 Mar only. Quiet conditions were observed across
the Australian region and in Antarctica on 23 March. On 24 March
the CME which became visible in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is
expected to arrive; this may result in an increase in geomagnetic
activity up to Minor Storm levels with possible Major Storm periods.
The disturbed conditions are expected to continue on UT day 25
March. On 26 March the geomagnetic activity is expected to return
to mostly Quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 23 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 24 March.
On 25 March the HF propagation conditions are expected to degrade
due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity up
to Storm levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 23 March, with mild depressions for
Northern Australian region during local day. Similar to slightly
improved MUF conditions are expected on UT day 24 March, due
the expected onset of disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with 20 March CME. On 25 March the HF propagation conditions
are expected to degrade due to the predicted increase in the
geomagnetic activity up to Storm levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 24500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list