[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 19 issued 2350 UT on 15 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Mar 16 10:50:35 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 15th March. The visible 
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CME's 
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
was approx 340km/s between 00UT-06UT and underwent a step increase 
from 344km/s to 397km/s at 0617UT. Notable increase in temperature 
and density also occurred at this time. Vsw has since ranged 
between 362/km/s and 414km/s and is currently 390km/s at the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
ranged between +5nt and -6nT between 0000UT-0617UT and has since 
fluctuated between +7nT and -5nT with no significant periods 
of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed is expected to be 
slightly elevated over the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance 
for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21210121
      Cocos Island         3   10211120
      Darwin               4   21211121
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            5   21210231
      Alice Springs        4   21210121
      Culgoora             3   11210121
      Gingin               5   20200331
      Canberra             3   11200121
      Launceston           5   11210231
      Hobart               2   11200120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   12300120
      Casey               10   32420232
      Mawson              21   44321354
      Davis               63   33329152

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0121 3122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar     7    Quiet
18 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 15 March and 
is current for 15-16 Mar. Quiet conditions observed over the 
Australian/NZ region for 15Mar and mostly Unsettled with minor 
Active periods for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for 16Mar to 17Mar and mostly Quiet conditions for 18Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 15Mar at Low latitudes 
ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to slightly enhanced. MUFs 
near predicted monthly value for mid latitudes while occasional 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of 
significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes due to 
increased geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 15Mar with slightly 
depressed MUFs for Northern AUS regions and periods of enhanced 
ionospheric support for Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of 
slight MUF depressions for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    32800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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