[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 19 issued 2351 UT on 11 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 12 10:51:31 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 11th March. Region 2734 
is the only numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk 
and is currently located near N08W54. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 317km/s to 377 km/s and is ~330km/s at the time of this 
report. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-4nT over the UT day with no sustained southward excursions. 
No observed effects on the solar wind attributed to the CME associated 
with the 08Mar C1.3 flare. A possible late arrival for this CME 
expected in the first half of the UT day 12Mar. Slight chance 
of glancing blow effects from the faint CME associated with the 
B6.1 flare 09Mar expected sometime on the 13 March. Onset of 
enhanced solar wind speeds are expected from late in the UT day 
13Mar to midway through 14Mar due to a recurrent equatorial located 
negative polarity coronal hole that appears to have increased 
in size from last rotation (as seen in SDO AIA193 imagery). Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with 
only slight chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10121000
      Darwin               1   00111001
      Townsville           2   10121001
      Learmonth            2   11112000
      Alice Springs        1   10111000
      Culgoora             2   20121001
      Gingin               1   11111000
      Canberra             1   00121000
      Launceston           4   11231001
      Hobart               2   01121000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   00131000
      Casey                7   23322011
      Mawson               7   11222114
      Davis                5   12322001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
13 Mar    20    Active
14 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian/NZ region 
for 11Mar while Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for Antarctic 
regions. Initially Quiet conditions are expected for 12Mar with 
the chance of increased solar wind speeds due to a late arriving 
CME observed on 08Mar that may result in Active to Minor Storm 
conditions. Should CME effects not eventuate, Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions expected through till late on 13Mar. Unsettled to 
Active conditions possible for 13Mar-14Mar due to the anticipated 
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for 11Mar. MUF 
expected to be near predicted monthly values for 12Mar with the 
chance of degraded HF conditions for 13-14 March due to an expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 11Mar. 
Mildly enhanced MUFs observed during local day for Equatorial 
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for 12Mar. Variable 
HF conditions expected for 13Mar-14Mar with possible enhancements 
to notable depressed ionospheric support due to expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity over this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0e+05 p/(cm2-ster-day)
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    45800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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