[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 11 10:30:07 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 10 March. Region
2734 is the only numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk; the region is currently located near N08W41. The CME associated
the 08/0339 UT C1.3 flare is expected to arrive at Earth on 11
March between 0200 UT and 1200 UT. The B6.1 flare observed at
09/1226 UT triggered a faint CME, which may also arrive at Earth
on 12-13 March. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low
for the next 3 UT days, 11-13 March, with a remote chance for
C-class flares. On UT day 10 March, the solar wind speed ranged
between 350 km/s and 460 km/s, gradually decreasing on average.
The observed mildly elevated solar wind speeds were caused by
small patchy equatorial coronal holes. During the last 24 hours,
the total IMF (Bt) was varying in the range 2-6 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -4 nT without
significant periods of southward Bz. On UT day 11 March, the
solar wind speed is expected to increase due to arrival of the
08 March CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11020001
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Culgoora 2 11100002
Gingin 1 11011000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 3 22111001
Hobart 1 11111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 12210000
Casey 5 23321000
Mawson 12 45222000
Davis 7 23322011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0001 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
12 Mar 17 Active
13 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 8 March and
is current for 11 Mar only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10 March. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. On 11 March a CME associated with a C1.3 flare observed
on 8 March is expected to arrive at Earth; this may result in
increase in the global geomagnetic activity up to Minor Storm
levels, with a chance for isolated Major Storm levels. Disturbed
conditions are expected to continue on 12 and 13 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 10 March mostly normal HF conditions were
observed. Degraded HF conditions are likely for 11-13 March due
to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
13 Mar -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On UT day 10 March, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs and degraded HF propagation
conditions are likely for 11 March due to predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity. Mildly depressed MUFs are expected for
12-13 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 86200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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