[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 19 issued 2349 UT on 12 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 13 10:49:52 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12th March. Region 2734
is the only numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk
and is currently located near N08W67. The solar wind speed was
335km/s at 00UT and at 0540UT it began to increase, reaching
the UT days maximum of 408km/s. Solar wind speed remained elevated
untill around 08UT. During this time the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) underwent a sustained southward excursion, reaching
-8nT of which can be attributed to the late arrival of the 08Mar
CME. From 08UT onwards Bz fluctuated between +4 and -5nT while
solar wind speed ranged between 347km/s-360km/s and is currently
353km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at nominal levels for the next 24-36 hours. Enhanced
solar wind speeds are expected during the early half of the UT
day 14Mar due to an equatorial located negative polarity coronal
hole. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next
3 days with only slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12222011
Cocos Island 3 21211010
Darwin 5 22222101
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 5 12222121
Alice Springs 4 22222000
Culgoora 3 11222000
Gingin 4 11222021
Canberra 2 11221000
Launceston 5 12322100
Hobart 3 11222001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11333000
Casey 17 44532112
Mawson 24 32333165
Davis 12 33432122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian/NZ region
for 12Mar while Unsettled to Active conditions observed for Antarctic
regions due to weak CME effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected
on 13Mar for AUS/NZ region and Unsettled t Active conditions for Antarctic
regions. Active conditions possible for 14Mar due to the anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial
located coronal hole and Unsettled to Quiet conditions expected
for 15Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for 12Mar at low
to mid latitudes. Occasional disturbed ionospheric support in
the latter half of the UT day for high latitudes due to increased
geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values for 13Mar. Chance of degraded HF conditions for 14-15
March for mid-high latitudes due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 12Mar.
Mildly enhanced MUFs observed during local day for Equatorial
regions and depressed conditions for Northern AUS regions. Variable
HF conditions expected for 13Mar-15Mar with possible enhancements
to notable depressed ionospheric support due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity over this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6e+05 p/(cm2-ster-day)
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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