[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 19 issued 2335 UT on 08 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 9 10:35:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 08 March. There is
currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk,
Region 2374 located near N08W14 at 08/2300 UT. It produced a
C1.3 flare peaked at 08/0339 UT. Solar activity is expected to
remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 09-11 March, with a remote
chance for C-class flares. A CME was observed in the LASCO coronagraph
imagery at 08/0417 UT. The shock wave associated with this CME
is expected to arrive on 11 March between 0200 UT and 1200 UT.
On UT day 8 March, the solar wind speed ranged between 395 km/s
and 430 km/s. The mildly elevated solar wind speeds are caused
by small patchy equatorial coronal holes. During the last 24
hours, the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -3 nT without
significant periods of southward Bz. The two day outlook (UT
days 09-10 March) is for the solar wind to remain mostly near
its nominal and slightly elevated levels in response to the effects
associated with the small patchy equatorial coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11120001
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11120001
Townsville 2 11120001
Learmonth 3 20220001
Alice Springs 1 00120001
Culgoora 3 10130001
Gingin 3 20220011
Canberra 3 10130002
Launceston 4 11230002
Hobart 3 11230001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 00130001
Casey 10 34420011
Mawson 10 33320114
Davis 8 33331011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1000 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 7 Quiet
11 Mar 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 08 March. Quiet and Active conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed sporadic
disturbed conditions are because the Earth is currently under
the influence of solar wind streams emanating from small patchy
equatorial coronal holes. During the next 2 UT days, 09-10 March,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels and at times may reach Unsettled levels due to the current
equatorial coronal hole effects. On 11 March a CME associated
with a C1.3 flare is expected to arrive at Earth; this may result
in increase in the global geomagnetic activity up to Minor Storm
levels. Isolated Major Storm levels are also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: On UT day 7 March there were mild MUF depressions over
the high latitude regions as compared to the monthly predicted
levels. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
2 UT days, 09-10 March, with occasional MUF depressions. Degraded
HF conditions are likely for 11 March due to predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 08 March, MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
levels. Mild depressions were observed over Northern Australian
region during local day. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 2 UT days, 9-10 March. Degraded HF
conditions are likely for 11 March due to predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1e+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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