[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 8 10:30:08 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 07 March. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2374 located near N08W00 at 07/2300 UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 08-10
March, with a remote chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 07 March, the solar wind speed ranged between 400 km/s and
500 km/s. The mildly elevated solar wind speed is caused by small
patchy equatorial coronal holes. During the last 24 hours, the
total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 8 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +6 nT and -4 nT, with mild
southward Bz condition from 07/1200 UT to 07/1600 UT. The two
day outlook (UT 08-09 March) is for the solar wind to remain
mostly near its current weakly elevated level in response to
the effects from the small patchy equatorial coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 10013322
Cocos Island 3 10012221
Darwin 5 11013221
Townsville 7 11113322
Learmonth 5 11013222
Alice Springs 5 10013321
Gingin 6 10013322
Canberra 5 00003322
Launceston 7 11113322
Hobart 6 10103322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 10004311
Casey 13 43313223
Mawson 34 21103476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1130 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07 March. Quiet to Storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
sporadic disturbed conditions are because the earth is currently
under the influence of weakly elevated solar wind speed emanating
from small patchy equatorial coronal holes. During the next 2
UT days, 08-09 March, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels and at times may reach Unsettled
levels due to the current equatorial coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 7 March there were mild MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun and mild Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected for today (UT day 8 March) with occasional
MUF depressions due to continued low levels of ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 07 March, MUFs were mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 69900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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