[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 5 09:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 4 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 5-7 June. During the UT day 4 June, the solar wind speed
was at background levels, varying between 320 and 350 km/s. The
IMF Btotal reached a peak of 8 nT at 04/1910 UT, currently around
4 nT. Bz had a sustained southward period from 04/1240 UT, reaching
a minimum of -7 nT at 04/1537 UT, currently varying between +/-4
nT. On UT days 5-7 June the solar wind speed is expected to be
mostly near its background levels but may become slightly enhanced
on 5 June due to possible weak coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 3 11101212
Townsville 4 12111212
Learmonth 6 12210322
Alice Springs 2 02100---
Culgoora 4 12111211
Gingin 3 12100221
Canberra 3 12110211
Launceston 6 12121321
Hobart 3 11111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 10220310
Casey 4 22110212
Mawson 18 43221345
Davis 8 13321231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1102 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 7 Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet levels across
the Australian region for the UT day 4 June, with some sites
experiencing an Unsettled period. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica. For the next 3 UT days, 5-7 June,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels with a chance of Unsettled periods on 5 June due to possible
weak coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable
HF conditions are expected for 5 June. Occasional enhancements
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 5-7 June, MUFs are
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 19300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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