[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 19 issued 2334 UT on 05 Jun 2019

Thu Jun 6 09:34:09 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 5 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed 
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 6-8 June. During the UT day 5 June, the solar wind speed 
was at background levels, varying between 308 and 365 km/s. The 
IMF Btotal gradually decreased from 6 nT at 05/0018 UT to currently 
between 2-3 nT. Bz initially varied between -5 to 4 nT, then 
decreased to varying between -2 to 3 nT. On UT days 6-8 June 
the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            0   10100000
      Alice Springs        2   22100000
      Culgoora             0   10000000
      Gingin               1   11100---
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           0   10010000
      Hobart               0   10010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                2   22101000
      Mawson               9   42211014
      Davis                5   32311000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2222 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     5    Quiet
07 Jun     5    Quiet
08 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 5 June. Mostly Quiet levels 
were observed in Antarctica, with some Unsettled to Active periods 
at some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 6-8 June, the global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced. 
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid 
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable 
HF conditions are expected for 6 June. Occasional enhancements 
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere, 
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high 
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jun     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian 
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 6-8 June, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    20300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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