[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 19 issued 2343 UT on 03 Jun 2019

Tue Jun 4 09:43:47 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 3 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed 
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 4-6 June. During the UT day 3 June, the solar wind speed 
was at background levels, varying between 290 and 330 km/s. The 
IMF Btotal reached a peak of 6nT at 03/1549 UT. Bz varied between 
-4 to 6 nT. On UT days 4-6 June the solar wind speed is expected 
to be mostly near its background levels but may become slightly 
enhanced due to possible weak coronal hole influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   00011211
      Cocos Island         1   00111110
      Darwin               2   00111211
      Townsville           3   11111211
      Learmonth            2   00111220
      Alice Springs        2   10011211
      Culgoora             2   00011112
      Gingin               2   00011220
      Canberra             2   00011210
      Launceston           3   00022210
      Hobart               2   00012210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00022000
      Casey                3   11011211
      Mawson               4   31101121
      Davis                3   11211120

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   21001111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun     7    Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
05 Jun     7    Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
06 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 3 June. Mostly Quiet levels 
were observed in Antarctica. For the next 3 UT days, 4-6 June, 
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet 
levels with a change of Unsettled periods on 4-5 June due to 
possible weak coronal hole influences.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced. 
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid 
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable 
HF conditions are expected for 4 June. Occasional enhancements 
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere, 
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high 
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high 
latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jun    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian 
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 4-6 June, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    22800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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