[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jul 2019

Thu Jul 25 09:31:35 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 24 July. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 25-27 
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 24 July, the solar wind speed 
varied between 360 and 420 km/s, generally exhibiting a declining 
trend. The mildly elevated solar wind are in response to multiple 
small coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3 
to 5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied 
between +3 and -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
mainly at background to mildly enhanced levels for the next 2 
UT days, 25-26 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11002111
      Cocos Island         3   11012111
      Darwin               3   12002111
      Townsville           4   11003112
      Learmonth            2   11002111
      Alice Springs        2   11002101
      Gingin               3   11102121
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Launceston           3   11013110
      Hobart               3   10003110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012100
      Mawson              11   42101234
      Davis                7   23212222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1322 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     7    Quiet
26 Jul     7    Quiet
27 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 24 July. Quiet to Unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 
UT days (25 to 27 July) with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions 
during the next 2 UT days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days (25-27 July).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 24 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in the Australian/NZ regions are expected to stay mostly near 
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (25 to 
27 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    73300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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