[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 26 09:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 25 July.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 26-28
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 25 July, the solar wind speed
was mostly steady near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt)
varied in the range 3 to 5 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) mostly varied between +3 and -3 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mainly at background level for the next
three UT days (26-28 July), with mild enhancements possible due
to small patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00001100
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 12001101
Learmonth 1 00002100
Alice Springs 1 00101001
Gingin 1 00002100
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 00002100
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Mawson 4 22100103
Davis 9 12211105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1100 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 5 Quiet
27 Jul 5 Quiet
28 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 24 July. Mostly Quiet and a short-lived
Unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity may be expected to stay mostly at quiet
levels for the next 3 UT days (26 to 28 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days (26-28 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 25 July. Sporadic-E
occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ
regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days (26 to 28 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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