[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 24 09:31:36 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 22 July. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 23 July, the solar wind speed varied between 
380 and 410 km/s by 1300 UT and then showed a gradual rise to 
435 km/s by 2300 UT. The mild enhancements are in response to 
multiple small coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the 
range 1.3 to 6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
mostly varied between +5 and -3.5 nT. The solar wind particle 
density varied between 0.5 ppcc and 3 ppcc during most parts 
of this day. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at 
background to mildly enhanced levels for the next 3 UT days, 
24-26 July. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 UT days, 24-26 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12222001
      Cocos Island         3   12222000
      Darwin               5   12223001
      Townsville           7   13233002
      Learmonth            5   13222001
      Alice Springs        3   12222000
      Gingin               4   12222001
      Canberra             2   01122000
      Launceston           4   12222001
      Hobart               3   12122001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   01120000
      Mawson              23   24532026
      Davis               13   14433023

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   1232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity with some 
unsettled periods were recorded in the Australian region on UT 
day 23 July. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected to stay 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 3 UT days (24 
to 26 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 23 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (24 to 26 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 23 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (24 to 26 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    55900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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