[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 7 09:31:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 6 July. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 July.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 6 July, the solar wind speed decreased from
its moderate levels to nominal levels, the current solar wind
speed is near 340 km/s. This drop is solar wind speed is in response
to the waning effects of a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) mostly steady near 3 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +2/-2 nT. During
the next UT day, 7 July, the solar wind speed is expected to
remain at its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 0 11000000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 12100000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 11000000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 1 11010001
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12110000
Mawson 5 32222000
Davis 7 33322000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 7 Quiet
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian and Antarctica region during the UT day 6 July. On
7 July global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at
Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
6 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 7-9 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
regions during UT day 6 July. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 92600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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