[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:31:14 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 7 July. There 
is currently one active region on the visible solar disk, AR2744; 
it produced only B-class flares. Very Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
8 July, the solar wind speed varied near its background levels, 
330-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component 
(Bz) varied in the ranges 1-5 nT and +2/-5 nT, respectively. 
During the next UT day, 8 July, the solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at its background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         1   00010111
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           3   11111012
      Learmonth            3   11021111
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Culgoora             1   00110011
      Gingin               2   11010112
      Canberra             1   00110011
      Launceston           2   01111011
      Hobart               1   01010011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                5   12121122
      Mawson              14   22223235
      Davis               17   12232136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul     7    Quiet
09 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australians regions and mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were 
observed in Antarctica during the UT day 7 July. On 8 July global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels. 
Then geomagnetic activity may reach Unsettled levels due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
7 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 8-10 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all 
Australian regions during UT day 7 July. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were observed over all Australian sites and in Antarctica. Similar 
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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