[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 6 09:31:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 5 July. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 6-8 July.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 5 July, the solar wind speed was mostly moderately
elevated, varying between 370 and 440 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied in the range 3-8 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied in the range +6/-4 nT and was mostly positive.
During the next UT day, 6 July, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain at moderately elevated levels due to the high-speed
solar wind stream associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole and can return back to its background levels by
the end of the UT day. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 05/1830UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11112100
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21112101
Townsville 3 21112101
Learmonth 3 21112100
Alice Springs 2 11102100
Culgoora 2 11112100
Gingin 2 11111100
Canberra 1 10012000
Launceston 2 11112100
Hobart 2 10012100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00011100
Casey 4 22111210
Mawson 5 22212003
Davis 5 12322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1100 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 7 Quiet
08 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled levels in Antarctica
during the UT day 5 July. On 6 July global geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary from Quiet to Unsettled levels;
isolated Active periods are possible because the Earth is under
the influence of high-speed solar wind stream associated with
a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to Quiet levels as the coronal hole effects
wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
6 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 6-8 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
regions during UT day 5 July. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over all Australian sites and in Antarctica. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 6-8 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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