[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 30 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today, 29 January. There is currently
one numbered sunspot on the visible disk, region 2733(N06W76)
which was the source of several B-class flares and two C2 flares
at 1034 UT and 2129UT. No CME signature was associated with the
first C2 flare at 1034UT. Coronagraph imagery is awaited to determine
if a geoeffective CME was associated with the second C2 flare
at 2129UT. Three faint narrow CMEs were observed in the coronagraph
imagery from the eastern limb between 0200-0800UT, unlikely to
be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for
the next 3 UT days with a chance of C-class flares from region
2733 over the next 24 hours before it rotates over the western
limb. On UT day 29 January, the solar wind speed continued declining,
currently ~360 Km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) was
mostly varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-3nT. From late UT day today, 30 January,
the solar wind is expected to enhance due to the anticipated
arrival of high speed streams (HSS) associated with a negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 01101001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 01101001
Townsville 1 01111001
Learmonth 2 11111001
Alice Springs 1 01001001
Gingin 1 01001001
Canberra 0 0000-000
Launceston 2 01112001
Hobart 2 01102001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00022000
Casey 8 24321011
Mawson 5 32111102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 1000 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 15 Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of an isolated
Active period
31 Jan 20 Quiet to Active
01 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29 January and is expected to remain so until
the arrival of the corotating interaction region and high speed
solar wind streams associated with a negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole late today, 30 January, geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to Unsettled levels and at times may reach
Active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 29 January.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On UT day 29 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region. Sporadic
E layers were over some Australian ionosonde stations. Near predicted
to slightly depressed MUFs are expected for today UT day 30 January.
Slightly stronger depressions may be observed on UT days 31 January-
01 February due to the forecasted geomagnetic activity associated
with the approaching coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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