[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 29 10:30:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 73/9 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 January. There
is one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region
2733(N06W63) but remained quiet over the period. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 29-31
January, with a slight chance of a C-class flare. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 28 January, the solar wind speed declined from 420 km/s to
360 km/s in response to the waning coronal hole effects. During
this period, the total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT.
The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4
nT. The solar wind is expected to be near nominal levels today,
29 January. From late UT day 30 January, the solar wind is expected
to enhance due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams
(HSS) associated with a negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 21100110
Learmonth 0 00100100
Alice Springs 2 12100100
Gingin 1 01101100
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 10111100
Hobart 1 10101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 10 24430111
Mawson 8 42111113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1101 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
31 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28 January. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mainly Quiet on UT today, 29 January. From late UT day
30 January, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled
levels and at times may reach Active levels. The predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity is due to arrival of the corotating interaction
region and high speed solar wind streams associated with a negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
31 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 28 January.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On UT day 28 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region due
to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Sporadic
E layers were over some Australian ionosonde stations. Near predicted
to slightly depressed MUFs are expected for today UT day 29 January,
as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun. Slightly stronger depressions may be observed on UT
days 30-31 January due to the forecasted geomagnetic activity
associated with the approaching coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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