[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 28 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 January. There
is still one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk,
Region 2733, located at N06W50 at 27/2300 UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 28-30
January, with a small chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 27 January, the solar wind speed declined from 450 km/s to
nearly 400 km/s in response to the waning effect of the positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole. During this period, the total
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -3 nT to +3 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decline towards its nominal
level as the effect of the coronal hole wanes further.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 3 11211002
Townsville 3 21111011
Learmonth 2 21111010
Alice Springs 2 01111002
Gingin 2 21111001
Canberra 0 00110000
Launceston 4 11221111
Hobart 3 11221001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11121000
Casey 15 35432112
Mawson 13 33223234
Davis 17 44433213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27 January. Mostly Unsettled conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions
over the high latitude region are because the Earth was under
the influence of weakly elevated solar wind streams associated
with the equatorial coronal hole. The three day outlook (UT day
28-30 January) is for the global geomagnetic to be mostly at
Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 27 January, due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun there were MUF depressions at times over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 27 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region due
to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Sporadic
E layers were over some Australian ionosonde stations. Near predicted
to depressed MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 28-30
January, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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