[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 31 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today, 30 January. There is currently
one numbered sunspot on the visible disk, region 2733(N06W87).
This region was the source of several B-class flares and three
C-class flares with the largest being a C5.2 flare at 0636UT.
A weak fast west limb CME was observed in LASCO imagery ~0700UT
possibly associated with the C5 flare, doesn't appear to be geoeffective.
SDO and gong-hlpha images show a filament lifting from the southern
hemisphere after 1500UT. Coronagraph imagery is not available
to determine if there was an associated CME. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 UT days with a chance
of further C-class flares from region 2733 over the next 24 hours
before it rotates over the western limb. On UT day 30 January,
the solar wind speed remained at nominal levels, currently ~300
Km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5
nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-3nT, mostly positive. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected
over the next three days due to the anticipated arrival of high
speed streams (HSS) associated with a negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 00100110
Cocos Island 1 10010100
Darwin 1 10100111
Townsville 1 10100111
Learmonth 0 00000110
Alice Springs 1 00100101
Gingin 1 01100110
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 00100111
Hobart 0 00000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12210111
Mawson 3 21000131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 1000 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 15 Quiet to Active
01 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30 January and is expected to remain so until
the arrival of the corotating interaction region and high speed
solar wind streams associated with a negative polarity equatorial
coronal sometime today, 31 January. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Unsettled levels and at times may reach Active
levels over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 30 January.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On UT day 30 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region while
the Niue Island region had Moderate MUF depressions during the
local day. Sporadic E layers were over some Australian ionosonde
stations. Near predicted to slightly depressed MUFs are expected
for today UT day 31 January. Slightly stronger depressions may
be observed on UT days 01-02 February as a consequence of very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and the forecasted
geomagnetic activity associated with the coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 26000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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