[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 18 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 18-20 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 17 January, the solar wind speed started around 380 km/s,
then increased after 17/1100 UT to around 480 km/s, reaching
a maximum of 526 km/s at 17/2014 UT, currently around 500 km/s.
During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated between
4 to 7 nT at the start of the day, then began to increase after
17/0800 UT, reaching a maximum of 10.9 nT at 17/1340 UT, currently
fluctuating between 2 to 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between -8 to 9 nT. The solar wind is expected
to be near nominal conditions on 18-20 January, with intermittent
moderate enhancements due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 21132222
Cocos Island 4 11121221
Darwin 6 11132222
Townsville 7 22132222
Learmonth 8 21132322
Alice Springs 7 21132222
Culgoora 6 11132222
Gingin 7 21122232
Canberra 5 11122222
Launceston 8 22132322
Hobart 6 12122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11011311
Casey 19 34443333
Mawson 17 43222353
Davis 14 23332343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1220 0032
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
19 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
20 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 17 January, with some Unsettled
periods. Mainly Quiet to Active conditions were observed in the
Antarctic regions, with an isolated minor storm period. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with possible Unsettled
periods on UT days 18-20 January in the Australian region, while
Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm
periods, due to intermittent moderate enhancements in the solar
wind from coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 17 January, there were Minor to Moderate MUF
depressions across the Niue Island and the Northern Australian
regions as compared to the monthly predicted levels. In the Southern
Australian region, MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values
with Minor depressions during the local day. In the Antarctic
regions, MUFs had Minor depressions throughout the UT day. Sporadic
E layers were observed across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
3 days with MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly
to moderately depressed due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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