[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 19 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 19-21 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 18 January, the solar wind speed started at around 480 km/s,
then gradually decreased, currently around 430 km/s. During the
last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 6.1 nT
at 18/0842 UT then started decreasing, currently fluctuating
between 3 to 4 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) reached
a minimum of -4.2 nT at 18/0139 UT, currently fluctuating between
-3 to 2 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near nominal conditions
on 19-21 January, but may experience intermittent moderate enhancements
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 4 21112211
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 7 32122212
Alice Springs 5 22121211
Culgoora 5 22121211
Gingin 6 31121212
Canberra 5 12131211
Launceston 7 22231212
Hobart 6 22231211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 21131111
Casey 19 44533222
Mawson 17 53323233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
20 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
21 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 18 January, with some Unsettled
periods. Mainly Quiet to Active conditions were observed in the
Antarctic regions, with an isolated minor storm period. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with possible Unsettled
periods on UT days 19-21 January in the Australian region, while
Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm
periods, due to the chance of intermittent moderate enhancements
in the solar wind from coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 January, MUFs were either near predicted
monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed across the Island,
Australian and Antarctic regions. Sporadic E layers were observed
across all regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support are
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted
monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due to continued
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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