[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 19 issued 2333 UT on 16 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 17 10:33:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 16 January. The 
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 17-19 January. No Earth directed 
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT 
day 16 January, the solar wind speed started around 410 km/s 
then decreased, reaching a minimum of 355 km/s at 16/1409 UT. 
The solar wind speed started to increase later in the UT day, 
reaching a maximum of 417 km/s at 16/1848 UT, currently around 
400 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated 
between 3 to 6 nT for most of the day, then began to increase 
around 16/1600 UT, reaching a maximum of 7.5 nT at 16/1850 UT. 
The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -5 to 
3 nT for most of the day, then experienced a southward period 
starting around 16/1800 UT, and is currently fluctuating between 
-7 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to return to nominal 
conditions on 17 to 19 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211122
      Cocos Island         3   12210111
      Darwin               5   12211122
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            6   12211223
      Alice Springs        5   22211122
      Culgoora             5   12211122
      Gingin               5   11211123
      Canberra             3   02200022
      Launceston           9   13312223
      Hobart               5   12211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   12100012
      Casey               14   34421233
      Mawson              28   23422166
      Davis               10   23322133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 1021     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan     5    Quiet
19 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 16 January, with some isolated 
Unsettled periods at higher latitudes. Mainly Quiet to Active 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions, with an isolated 
minor storm period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet 
to Unsettled on UT day 17 January in the Australian region, while 
Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm 
periods, due to a moderate enhancement in the solar wind from 
recurrent coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region is expected to return to Quiet levels on UT days 18-19 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern 
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly 
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF 
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   -30    Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jan   -30    Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan   -30    Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 16 January, there were minor to moderate MUF 
depressions across the Niue Island and Australian regions as 
compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe MUF 
depressions during the local night in the Northern Australian 
region. In the Antarctic regions, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values. Sporadic E layers were observed across the Australian 
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted 
monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due to continued 
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    58900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

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Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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