[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 19 issued 2333 UT on 16 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 17 10:33:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 16 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 17-19 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 16 January, the solar wind speed started around 410 km/s
then decreased, reaching a minimum of 355 km/s at 16/1409 UT.
The solar wind speed started to increase later in the UT day,
reaching a maximum of 417 km/s at 16/1848 UT, currently around
400 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated
between 3 to 6 nT for most of the day, then began to increase
around 16/1600 UT, reaching a maximum of 7.5 nT at 16/1850 UT.
The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -5 to
3 nT for most of the day, then experienced a southward period
starting around 16/1800 UT, and is currently fluctuating between
-7 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to return to nominal
conditions on 17 to 19 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Cocos Island 3 12210111
Darwin 5 12211122
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 6 12211223
Alice Springs 5 22211122
Culgoora 5 12211122
Gingin 5 11211123
Canberra 3 02200022
Launceston 9 13312223
Hobart 5 12211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12100012
Casey 14 34421233
Mawson 28 23422166
Davis 10 23322133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 16 January, with some isolated
Unsettled periods at higher latitudes. Mainly Quiet to Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions, with an isolated
minor storm period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet
to Unsettled on UT day 17 January in the Australian region, while
Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm
periods, due to a moderate enhancement in the solar wind from
recurrent coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region is expected to return to Quiet levels on UT days 18-19
January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 16 January, there were minor to moderate MUF
depressions across the Niue Island and Australian regions as
compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe MUF
depressions during the local night in the Northern Australian
region. In the Antarctic regions, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values. Sporadic E layers were observed across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted
monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due to continued
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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