[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 27 10:30:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 26 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
27 February-01 March. Some minor impacts may be experienced on
28 February due to the CME associated the filament observed around
23/2332UT. No other Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 February, the solar wind speed
remained at background levels, around 320 Km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 2-5 nT and the north-south component of IMF
(Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to enhance
today, 27 February in response to the arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Enhanced solar
winds should continue on UT days 28 February-01 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 0 00010100
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 1 00010101
Townsville 2 11011201
Learmonth 0 00010100
Alice Springs 0 00010100
Gingin 1 10010101
Canberra 1 10010100
Launceston 2 10021200
Hobart 1 00021100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00010100
Casey 6 33211201
Mawson 7 32011114
Davis 3 12111101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 20 Active with possible Minor Storm periods.
28 Feb 25 Active with possible Minor to Major Storm periods.
01 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 February
and is current for 28 Feb only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 26 February
and is expected to remain so until the arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated
with a negative polarity coronal hole today, 27 February, geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels.
Active levels should continue on UT days 28 February- 1 March.
Minor to Major Storm periods may be observed on UT days 27-28
February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,27
February as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Mar -20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 26 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most of the Australian region. Equatorial/Northern
Aus regions experienced periods of mild depressions. Sporadic
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Mild to Moderate depressions may be observed over the next three
days, 27 February-1 March due to continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and expected disturbed geomagnetic
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 27900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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