[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 26 10:30:24 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 February. The 
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 
26-28 February. Some minor impacts may be experienced on 28 February 
due to the CME associated the filament observed around 23/2332UT. 
On UT day 25 February, the solar wind speed remained at background 
levels. The total IMF (Bt) fluctuated around 5 nT and the north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind 
is expected to start increasing either late today, 26 February 
or early on 27 February in response to the arrival of the corotating 
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated 
with a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Enhanced solar 
winds should continue on UT days 27-28 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               2   11-10101
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            0   01000100
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           1   11100001
      Hobart               1   01100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                8   33331001
      Mawson               8   12111105
      Davis                4   22222001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a possible Active period.
27 Feb    20    Active with possible Minor Storm periods.
28 Feb    25    Active with possible Minor Storm periods.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 24 February 
and is current for 27 Feb only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 25 February 
and is expected to remain so until the arrival of the corotating 
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated 
with a negative polarity coronal hole late today, 26 February 
or early on 27 February, geomagnetic activity is expected to 
increase to Unsettled to Active levels. Active levels should 
continue on UT days 27-28 February. Minor Storm periods are possible 
on UT days 27-28 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
28 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 25 February. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -27
Feb      -12
Mar      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Feb   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
28 Feb   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: On UT day 25 February, MUFs were mildly depressed to 
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region due 
to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Sporadic 
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations. 
Similar conditions are expected today, 26 February. Slightly 
stronger depressions may be observed on UT days 27-28 February 
as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun and forecasted increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    26200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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