[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 25 10:30:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
25-27 February. A filament centred near N19W38 was observed to
lift off starting at 23/2332 UT resulting in a CME that was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 24/0125 UT. From initial modelling
results, the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. No other
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery up to
24/2112 UT. On UT day 24 February, the solar wind speed decreased
from 340 km/s to around 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mainly
between 2 to 4 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied
between -3 and 4 nT. The outlook for the next UT day, 25 February,
is for the solar wind speed to remain at background levels. The
solar wind is expected to start increasing either late on UT
day 26 February or on UT day 27 February due to the effects of
a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 11102001
Learmonth 1 10111000
Alice Springs 3 11------
Gingin 1 10111000
Canberra 1 01002000
Launceston 2 11102000
Hobart 1 01102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 6 23322100
Mawson 2 12211000
Davis 6 13322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 4 Quiet
26 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a possible isolated
Active period
27 Feb 20 Unsettled to Active, with possible Minor Storm
periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 24 February
and is current for 27 Feb only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled
conditions in the Antarctic region on UT day 24 February. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mainly Quiet levels
on UT days 25 February then increase to Unsettled to Active levels
either late on UT day 26 February or on UT day 27 February due
to coronal hole effects. Minor Storm periods are possible on
UT day 27 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 25-27 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun and expected disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with a coronal hole on 27 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most of the Australian region. The Cocos
Island region experienced mild to moderate enhancements during
both the local day and local night. The Northern Australian region
experienced mild depressions during the local day. Some periods
of sporadic E layers were seen across the region. During the
next three UT days, 25-27 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted levels. However, mild to moderate depressions
are possible due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and expected disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with a coronal hole on 27 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 36400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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