[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 28 10:30:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
28 February-02 March. Some minor impacts may be experienced today,
28 February due to the CME associated the filament observed around
23/2332UT. No other Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind parameters show the arrival
of the anticipated corotating interaction region associated with
a negative polarity coronal hole starting 27/0630UT. The Solar
wind speed started increasing from 300 Km/s at 27/0630UT reaching
510 km/s at 27/1630UT, currently ~480 Km/s. During this period,
the total IMF (Bt) increased from 4 nT reaching 12 nT at 27/1327UT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-10 nT with short lived southward excursions. The solar wind
is expected to further enhance today, 28 February due coronal
hole effects and possible minor impacts from 23/2330UT CME. Enhanced
solar winds should continue on UT day 01 March hen begin to wane
on UT day 02 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 00113323
Cocos Island 4 10112222
Darwin 6 10112323
Townsville 7 01113323
Learmonth 7 00113323
Alice Springs 6 00112323
Gingin 7 10123223
Canberra 7 00113323
Launceston 9 11123333
Hobart 8 00113333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 15 00025532
Casey 12 23332323
Mawson 18 31113336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 25 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor to Major
Storm periods.
01 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 February
and is current for 28 Feb only. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 27
February. Minor Storm periods were observed in the Antarctic
region. The observed disturbed conditions were caused by CIR
and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal hole. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels and
at times reaching Minor Storm levels today, 28 February due coronal
hole effects and possible minor impacts from 23/2330UT CME. A
period of significant southward Bz component could produce a
Major Storm period over the next 24 hours. Active conditions
should continue on UT day 01 March. Then mainly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions on UT day 02 March as the coronal hole effects begin
to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,28
February as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar -20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 27 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to slightly depressed over the Australian region. Sporadic
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Slightly stronger depressions may be observed on UT days 28 February-2
March due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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