[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 17 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
17-19 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 16/1836 UT. On UT day 16 February,
the solar wind speed was mostly near its background levels, ranging
between 350-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 3 nT to
5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+3/-3 nT. The outlook for the next two UT days (17-18 February)
is for the solar wind speed to remain near its background levels.
The solar wind is expected to start increasing from UT 19 February
in response to an approaching positive polarity patchy coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 01101111
Cocos Island 1 10101110
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 2 01100211
Alice Springs 1 01000110
Culgoora 1 01001110
Gingin 1 00000211
Canberra 1 01100110
Launceston 2 01101211
Hobart 1 01101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01101100
Casey 10 24412211
Mawson 10 12212334
Davis 7 23222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 3110 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 5 Quiet
18 Feb 5 Quiet
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet to unsettled levels were seen in Antarctica
on UT day 16 February. On UT days 17-18 February the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels. Condition
may reach to unsettled levels and occasionally to active levels
on UT day 19 February in response to corotation interaction region
associated with an approaching positive polarity patchy coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 16 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in Southern
hemisphere during the next three UT days, 17-19 February, due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 16 February, MUFs were moderately depressed
to mostly near monthly predicted levels over the Australasia
region. During the next three UT days, 17-19 February, mild to
moderate depressions are likely due to continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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