[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 16 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
16-18 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 15/2236 UT. On UT day 15 February,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 390-500 km/s, gradually
decreasing on average. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 3 nT to
5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+3/-3 nT. During the next UT day, 16 February, the solar wind
speed is expected to approach its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11011100
Cocos Island 1 10010010
Darwin 1 12001000
Townsville 2 21111100
Learmonth 1 10-11100
Alice Springs 1 11011000
Culgoora 2 11111100
Gingin 1 10011110
Canberra 1 11001100
Launceston 2 11111110
Hobart 2 11111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 33331121
Mawson 11 34211133
Davis 11 33322141
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3323 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 7 Quiet
17 Feb 6 Quiet
18 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet to unsettled levels were seen in Antarctica
on UT day 15 February. On UT days 16-18 February the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 15 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions may be observed in Southern hemisphere during
the next three UT days, 16-18 February, due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
17 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
18 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 15 February, MUFs were moderately depressed
across Southern Australian region. In Northern Australian region
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values or enhanced, although
moderate depressions were also observed. During the next three
UT days, 16-18 February, mild to moderate depressions are likely
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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