[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 12 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
12-14 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 11/2224 UT. On UT day 11 February,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 370-380 km/s
to 400 km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between
3 nT and 8 nT, gradually increasing on average due to arrival
of the corotating interaction region associated with a coronal
hole. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+5/-6 nT. During the next UT day, 12 February, the solar wind
speed is expected to vary between its background and moderately
enhanced levels. The expected enhancement is due to possible
arrival of high speed solar wind streams associated with the
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11113322
Cocos Island 2 10012210
Darwin 6 11113312
Townsville 8 21123322
Learmonth 7 11113322
Alice Springs 6 01113322
Culgoora 6 11113312
Gingin 8 01114322
Canberra 7 11113322
Launceston 9 11223422
Hobart 7 11113322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 00105411
Casey 12 33422322
Mawson 18 42223452
Davis 14 23333341
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2211 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 11 February. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to stay at quiet to unsettled levels
on UT days 12-14 February due to expected weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 11 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low latitude
areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed during the next three UT days,
12-14 February, due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and a possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic
activity on UT days 12 and 13 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 11 February, MUFs were mostly depressed by
15% across Southern Australian region. Variable HF conditions
were observed in Northern Australian region with mild to moderate
MUF depressions during local day and enhancements during local
night. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions during the
next three UT days, 12-14 February, due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and some possibility
of slight rise in geomagnetic activity on UT days 12 and 13 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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