[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 13 10:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 February. The 
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days, 
13-15 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available 
coronagraph imagery up to 12/2224 UT. On UT day 12 February, 
the solar wind speed was varying near its nominal values, 340-420 
km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 
nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in 
the range +7/-5 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. 
During the next UT day, 13 February, the solar wind speed is 
expected to vary between its background and moderately enhanced 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111002
      Cocos Island         2   20111001
      Darwin               3   22111002
      Townsville           5   21222012
      Learmonth            3   21121002
      Alice Springs        2   11111002
      Culgoora             3   11111012
      Gingin               3   21121002
      Canberra             3   11112012
      Launceston           6   -3212112
      Hobart               3   11112002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   11002001
      Casey               15   34433113
      Mawson              12   34212214
      Davis               15   34322105

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1120 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 12 February. An isolated active period was observed 
in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to 
stay at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 13-15 February due 
to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 12 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed 
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild 
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low latitude 
areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be observed in Southern hemisphere during the 
next three UT days, 13-15 February, due to continued very low 
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and a possibility of 
slight rise in geomagnetic activity on UT days 13 and 14 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -27
Feb      -12
Mar      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
14 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
15 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On UT day 12 February, MUFs were mostly depressed by 
20-25% across Southern Australian region. Near predicted monthly 
values and enhanced MUFs were observed in Northern Australian 
region. Similar HF conditions are expected for the Aus/NZ regions 
during the next three UT days, 13-15 February. Expected depressions 
are due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun and some possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic activity 
on UT days 13 and 14 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    44800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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