[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 11 10:30:17 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 10 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
11-13 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 10/2030 UT. On UT day 10 February,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 460 km/s
to 400 km/s. This decrease in the solar wind speed is due to
waning of the coronal hole effect. During this period the total
IMF (Bt) ranged mostly between 2.5 nT and 5 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +4/-3 nT. The solar
wind parameters may get weaker through UT day 11 February and
then again rise and stay enhanced on UT days 12 and 13 February
due to another coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 2 12010100
Darwin 3 12111102
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 2 12111100
Alice Springs 3 22111101
Gingin 3 21110210
Launceston 5 23211111
Hobart 3 12111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12101000
Casey 14 44431212
Mawson 20 55222243
Davis 13 34332231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2122 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 6 Quiet
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10 February. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to stay at quiet levels on UT day 11 February. Due to
an expected weak effect of a coronal hole, the global geomagnetic
conditions may rise to unsettled levels on UT days 12 and 13
February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 10 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels to depressed by around 20%. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low latitude
areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed for the next three days (UT days
11 to 13 February) due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and some possibility of slight rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on UT days 12 and 13 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb -18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb -18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 10 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels to depressed by around 20% across most parts
of Australian/NZ regions. Periods of mild to moderate MUF enhancements
were also observed in some northern areas. Strong sporadic E
layers were also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 February) due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun
and some possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on UT days 12 and 13 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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