[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 10 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 09 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
10-12 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 09/1730 UT. On UT day 09 February,
the solar wind speed varied mostly between 440 km/s to 490 km/s.
This rise in the solar wind speed is due to effect of the HSS
from a negative polarity coronal hole. During this period the
total IMF (Bt) ranged mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-2 nT. The solar
wind parameters may stay enhanced for the next three UT days
(10 to 12 February) due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Cocos Island 4 21121220
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 7 22223221
Learmonth 8 22223320
Alice Springs 5 21222211
Gingin 9 32223320
Launceston 8 22323221
Hobart 6 22222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 22222120
Casey 21 45532232
Mawson 29 44343364
Davis 26 33453262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2122 0023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
11 Feb 6 Quiet with isolated unsettled periods
12 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 09 February. Global geomagnetic
activity may show slight enhancements to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods on UT day 10 February due to the effect
of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
of the solar disk. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of global
geomagnetic activity may be expected for 11 and 12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 09 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Periods of mild MUF depressions as well as
enhancements were observed in some low latitude areas. Strong
sporadic E layers were also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed for the next
three days (UT days 10 to 12 February) due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: On UT day 09 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels across most parts of Australian/NZ regions.
Periods of mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements were
observed in the northern areas. Strong sporadic E layers were
also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions for the
next three days (UT days 10 to 12 February) due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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