[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 9 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 08 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
09-11 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 08/1806 UT. On UT day 08 February,
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from nearly 400 km/s
to 350 km/s by 0440 UT and then showed a rise to 470 km/s by
0930 UT. Solar wind speed then varied mostly between 450 and
490 km/s. This rise in the solar wind speed is due to the arrival
of the HSS from a negative polarity coronal hole. During this
period the total IMF (Bt) ranged mostly between 3 nT and 7 nT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+5.5/-5.5 nT. The solar wind parameters may stay enhanced for
the next three UT days (09 to 11 February) due to the effect
of a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21121223
Cocos Island 6 21121123
Darwin 5 11111123
Townsville 5 21121222
Learmonth 6 21121223
Alice Springs 4 21111122
Gingin 7 21121133
Launceston 5 11221222
Hobart 5 11211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01120111
Casey 16 34431224
Mawson 22 54322145
Davis 14 23322135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1110 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
10 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08 February. Global geomagnetic activity may
show enhancements up to active levels, on UT days 09 and 10 February
due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole in the
southern hemisphere of the solar disk. Global geomagnetic activity
may then show a gradual decline to unsettled and quiet levels
through the UT day 11 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: On UT day 08 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels. Periods of moderate MUF depressions as well as enhancements
were observed in some low latitude areas. Minor MUF depressions
were observed in the Antarctic region too. Strong sporadic E
layers were also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed for the next
three days (UT days 09 to 11 February) due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
10 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: On UT day 08 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels across most parts of Australian/NZ regions. Periods of
moderate MUF depressions as well as enhancements were observed
in the northern areas. Minor MUF depressions were observed in
the Antarctic region too. Strong sporadic E layers were also
observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions for the
next three days (UT days 09 to 11 February) due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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