[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 8 10:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 07 February. The 
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 
08-10 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available 
coronagraph imagery up to 07/2018 UT. On UT day 07 February, 
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from nearly 450 km/s 
to 400 km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 
3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +3.5/-3.5 nT. The solar wind parameters may stay 
enhanced for the next three UT days (08 to 10 February) due to 
the effect of a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere 
of the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   10001102
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            2   11101101
      Alice Springs        1   00001101
      Gingin               2   11001111
      Launceston           3   11201202
      Hobart               2   11101102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100101
      Casey               15   34522222
      Mawson              20   43212255
      Davis                9   33322122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1213 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
09 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
10 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 07 February. Global geomagnetic activity may 
show enhancements up to active levels, on UT days 08 and 09 February 
due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole in the 
southern hemisphere of the solar disk. Global geomagnetic activity 
may then show a gradual decline to unsettled and quiet levels 
through the UT day 10 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
09 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
10 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: On UT day 07 February, global MUFs were near monthly 
predicted levels to mildly depressed. Strong sporadic E layers 
were also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions may be observed for the next three days (UT 
days 08 to 10 February) due to continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity levels through this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Feb   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -27
Feb      -12
Mar      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
09 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
10 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 07 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted 
levels to mildly depressed across most parts of Australian/NZ 
regions. Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Antarctic 
region too. Strong sporadic E layers were also observed. Minor 
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days 
(UT days 08 to 10 February) due to continued very low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    78000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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