[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 2 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 01 February. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 02-04 February. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind speed observed during the last 24 hours was at strongly
enhanced levels, near 620 km/s. This is in response to high speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) started ~ 12 nT then decreased, currently
fluctuating between 2 to 4 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) underwent several southward excursions up to -10 nT but
decreased to +/- 4nT after 0900UT. Enhanced solar wind speeds
are expected to continue over the next two days as coronal hole
effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 33332323
Cocos Island 9 32222322
Darwin 11 33332312
Townsville 13 33332323
Learmonth 14 33332423
Alice Springs 12 33332322
Gingin 14 33323423
Canberra 9 23322312
Launceston 17 34333423
Hobart 14 23333413
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 23444532
Casey 30 55632333
Mawson 55 35533667
Davis 47 45543745
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 1111 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
03 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01 February, with isolated
Active periods at higher latitudes. Active to Storm conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed
conditions were caused by CIR and subsequent HSS associated with
a negative polarity equatorial coronal. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next
three UT days, 02-04 February with possible Active periods today,
02 February as coronal hole effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected to continue
today, 02 February as a consequence of very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and the current increased geomagnetic
activity associated with coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 01 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to moderately depressed over the Australian region. Sporadic
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Near predicted to moderately depressed MUFs are expected for
the next two UT days, 02-03 February, as a consequence of very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 17.2 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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