[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 1 10:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 January. The 
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 February. No Earth directed 
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar 
wind parameters observed during the last 24 hours show the arrival 
of the anticipated corotating interaction region and high speed 
solar wind streams associated with a negative polarity equatorial 
coronal hole. The Solar wind speed started increasing from 300 
Km/s at 31/0300 reaching 520 km/s at the time of this report. 
During this period, the total IMF (Bt) was gradually increasing 
from 4 nT reaching 20 nT at 31/1740UT, currently near 10 nT, 
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between 
+/-15 nT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to continue 
over the next two days under the influence of the coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   11213334
      Cocos Island         9   11113324
      Darwin              10   21213333
      Townsville          12   22223334
      Learmonth           12   22213334
      Alice Springs       10   22213333
      Gingin              11   11114324
      Canberra             6   01113223
      Launceston          13   11224334
      Hobart              10   11223324    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    16   01125523
      Casey               18   24433334
      Mawson              22   31224346
      Davis               18   22334335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    20    Quiet to Active with a chance of Minor Storm 
                levels.
02 Feb    12    Quiet to Active
03 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and 
is current for 1 Feb only. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 31 
January, with some isolated Active periods. Active to Minor Storm 
periods were observed in the Antarctic regions. The observed 
disturbed conditions were caused by CIR and subsequent HSS associated 
with a negative polarity equatorial coronal. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels over the next two 
UT days, 01-02 February as coronal hole effects persist. A period 
of significant southward Bz component could produce Minor Storm 
levels over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
02 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
03 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today, 
01 February as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun and the current increased geomagnetic activity associated 
with coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Feb   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
03 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 31 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to 
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region. Northern 
Australian region and the Niue Island region had Moderate MUF 
depressions during the local day. Sporadic E layers were over 
some Australian ionosonde stations. Slightly stronger depressions 
may be observed on UT days 01-02 February as a consequence of 
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and increased 
geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:     8970 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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