[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 19 issued 2345 UT on 24 Dec 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 25 10:45:29 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 073/008


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   072/008            072/008            072/008

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24 Dec. Two active regions 
have emerged,one has been numbered as 2753(N29E46) and another 
one in the NW quadrant(no number yet). Both regions are small 
and inactive. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days, 25-27 Dec. There is a chance of increased 
solar activity over the next coming days due to new development. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph 
imagery. During 24 Dec, the solar wind speed was near its background 
levels, under 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT 
and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly 
between +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly 
at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three 
days, 25-27 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111100
      Cocos Island         1   01010100
      Darwin               1   10011101
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            2   10111200
      Alice Springs        2   11111100
      Gingin               1   11010100
      Canberra             1   11110000
      Hobart               1   11110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   10100000
      Casey               12   44332101
      Mawson               8   41122103

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       002
           Planetary            002                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       002
           Planetary            002   0101 1000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian 
region on 24 Dec. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active 
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 25-27 Dec, with a chance 
of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 25-27 
Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec   -32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
26 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to mildly depressed for the Australian region 
on 24 Dec. Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island 
region local day and night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen 
over most sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected 
for the next three UT days, 25-27 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    40600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list