[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 19 issued 2350 UT on 22 Dec 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 23 10:50:21 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Dec. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions are expected 
to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 309km/s to 395km/s over the UT day. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +4nT and -3 nT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background/ambient 
levels for the next 2 days with the chance of becoming elevated 
late in the UT day 24Dec or early 25Dec due to a high speed solar 
wind stream from a southern hemisphere located negative polarity 
coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   20101011
      Cocos Island         1   10100001
      Darwin               2   20001012
      Townsville           2   20101011
      Learmonth            2   20101011
      Alice Springs        2   20101002
      Gingin               2   20100012
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               2   11201010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   10101000
      Casey               14   45321112
      Mawson              11   32221115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1021 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     5    Quiet
24 Dec     5    Quiet
25 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian 
region on 22Dec with Active to Quiet conditions observed for 
Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly Quiet for 23Dec-24Dec with Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for 25Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Southern Hemisphere 
with Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions as well as enhanced periods. 
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Northern hemisphere stations 
with occasional enhanced MUFs. Similar conditions expected for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Equatorial 
to Northern AUS regions with periods of mild MUF depressions 
and enhancements. MUFs for Antarctic regions were mostly at near 
predicted monthly values and depressed MUFs during local day 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
is expected for the next 3 days with periods of mildly depressed 
MUFs for all regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    56200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list