[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 19 issued 2345 UT on 21 Dec 2019

Sun Dec 22 10:45:17 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 21Dec. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions are expected 
to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has 
gradually declined from 423km/s at 00UT to be 372km/s at the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
fluctuated between +/-3 nT over the UT day with some brief sustained 
southward periods between 05UT-11UT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to remain at background/ambient levels for the next 
3 days with the chance of becoming elevated late in the UT day 
24Dec due to a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere 
located negative polarity coronal hole that crossed the central 
meridian today. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Cocos Island         2   11111010
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            3   21111011
      Alice Springs        2   20111002
      Gingin               2   20111011
      Canberra             2   10111011
      Hobart               3   11221011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   10122000
      Casey               11   34332121
      Mawson              11   31222243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 2101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     5    Quiet
23 Dec     5    Quiet
24 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian 
region on 21Dec with Unsettled to Quiet conditions observed for 
Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly Quiet for 22Dec-24Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
23 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
24 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed for 
Southern Hemisphere and occasional enhanced MUFS for Northern 
hemisphere stations for the next three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Dec   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions ranged from mildly depressed maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) to MUFS near predicted monthly values on 21Dec 
with significant sporadic-E observed at most low to mid latitude 
sites between 02UT-08UT. MUFs for Antarctic regions were mostly 
at near predicted monthly values. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected for the next 3 days with further occurrences 
of sporadic-E expected for Equatorial, Northern AUS and some 
Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    54300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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