[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 December 19 issued 2354 UT on 20 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 10:54:44 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 20Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
was elevated over the first half of the UT day ranging between
517km/s-450km/s and then between 450km/s-400km/s in the latter
half. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-3 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to
be slightly elevated on 21Dec as it gradually reverts back to
ambient levels (22Dec-23Dec) due to the waning influence of the
recent positive polarity coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101201
Cocos Island 2 11101201
Darwin 2 11101201
Townsville 3 11101211
Learmonth 5 11112312
Alice Springs 2 11001201
Gingin 4 11102212
Canberra 2 11001201
Hobart 3 11112201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01012200
Casey 12 34222323
Mawson 15 32113245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3443 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 6 Quiet
22 Dec 5 Quiet
23 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the Australian
region for 20Dec. The Antarctic region observed Unsettled to
Active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly Quiet for 21Dec-23Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed for
Southern Hemisphere and occasional enhanced MUFS for Northern
hemisphere stations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions ranged from mildly depressed maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) to MUFS near predicted monthly values for
20Dec with significant sporadic-E observed at most low to mid
latitude sites in the first half of the UT day. MUFs for Antarctic
regions were mostly at near predicted monthly values. Similar
ionospheric support is expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 97600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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