[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 19 issued 2345 UT on 17 Dec 2019

Wed Dec 18 10:45:12 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 17 December. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no active 
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Very Low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
18-20 December. The solar wind speed peaked at 395 km/s at 17/0118 
UT then gradually declined, and is currently around 345 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-4 nT, while the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly between -4 to +3 nT. 
The solar wind is expected to be become enhanced from early on 
UT 18 December due to the influence of an equatorial positive 
polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           2   21110011
      Learmonth            2   21100010
      Alice Springs        1   01100001
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               10   44321011
      Mawson               5   22111113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec    20    Unsettled to Active, with a slight chance of 
                an isolated Minor Storm period
19 Dec    12    Unsettled to Active
20 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 17 December, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed 
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with an isolated Active 
period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to 
Unsettled to Active levels early on UT day 18 December due to 
coronal hole effects, with a slight chance of an isolated Minor 
Storm period. Unsettled to Active levels are expected on UT day 
19 December, then decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 
20 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 18-20 
Dec.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Dec   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
19 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
20 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to depressed by 15-35% for the Australian region 
on 17 December. MUFs in the Antarctic region were mostly near 
monthly predicted values. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over 
some sites. In the Australian regions, Minor to Moderate MUFs 
depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted 
levels for the next three UT days, 18-20 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.8E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    62500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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