[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 19 issued 2334 UT on 16 Dec 2019

Tue Dec 17 10:34:59 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 16 Dec. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions due to 
return. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph 
imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next three days, 17-19 Dec. The solar wind speed ranged between 
350-430 km/s with a declining trend on 16 Dec. The total IMF 
(Bt) reached 4 nT, while the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) varied mostly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to be become enhanced from late 17 Dec or early 18 Dec due to 
the influence of an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101100
      Cocos Island         1   01101100
      Darwin               2   21101100
      Townsville           3   21102111
      Learmonth            2   11201200
      Alice Springs        1   11101100
      Gingin               2   21101100
      Hobart               3   12202100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11101000
      Casey               10   23422222
      Mawson               7   32212221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1110 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    15    Quiet to Active
18 Dec    20    Quiet to Active with a slight chance of an isolated 
                Minor Storm period.
19 Dec    10    Quirt to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 16 Dec was Quiet for the Australian 
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled conditions. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to Unsettled 
and Active levels from late 17 Dec or early 18 Dec due to coronal 
hole effects. There is a slight chance of an isolated Minor Storm 
period on 18 Dec. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels for 19 Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
19 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 17-19 
Dec.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Dec   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
19 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 16 Dec. Moderate 
MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region local night. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Minor to Moderate 
MUFs depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted 
levels for the next three days, 17-19 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    66300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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