[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 19 issued 2333 UT on 18 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 19 10:33:10 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 18 December.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
disk and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 19-21 December. The solar wind speed started
the UT day at around 350 km/s and continued to gradually increase
due to high speed streams from an equatorial positive polarity
coronal hole, peaking at 578 km/s at 18/1929 UT and currently
varying around 520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum
of 12.7 nT at 18/1025 UT and is currently varying between 2-9
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum
of -10.0 nT at 18/1029 UT and is currently varying between +/-7
nT. The solar wind is expected to be remain enhanced on UT day
19 December then decline on UT days 20-21 December as the influence
of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Cocos Island 6 22122320
Darwin 9 22133322
Townsville 12 22243332
Learmonth 10 22233322
Alice Springs 10 22233322
Gingin 11 22133422
Canberra 9 12233322
Hobart 9 12233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 19 12155432
Casey 29 35644332
Mawson 20 23343542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 12 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 18 December, geomagnetic activity was at mainly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with isolated
Active periods observed at some sites. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Active conditions, with some isolated Minor and Major
Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
Unsettled to Active on UT day 19 December due to coronal hole
effects, then decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days
20-21 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 19-21
December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to Minor depressions for the Australian region
on UT day 18 December. The Niue Island Region observed Moderate
depressions during the local night. MUFs in the Antarctic region
were mostly near monthly predicted values. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over most sites. In the Australian region, Minor to
Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared to the monthly
predicted levels for the next three UT days, 19-21 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 36000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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